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Such a conflict could evolve into a joint U.S.-Israeli operation significantly larger than previous confrontations.
By United with Israel Staff
The United States is rapidly expanding its military presence across the Middle East as officials weigh the possibility of a strike on Iran, with senior administration sources estimating the likelihood of military action at “90 percent certainty,” according to a report published Wednesday by Axios.
The growing preparations come despite ongoing nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which U.S. officials increasingly doubt will produce a breakthrough.
Vice President JD Vance said following this week’s Geneva talks that Iran has not yet acknowledged several of President Donald Trump’s key “red lines,” particularly regarding its nuclear program.
“In some ways it went well,” Vance told Fox News. “But it was very clear that the President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the negotiations more positively, saying Tehran and Washington reached understandings on “key principles” and would move toward drafting potential agreement texts.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, whose country mediated the indirect talks, called the discussions constructive but cautioned that “much work remains ahead.”
Behind the diplomatic track, however, U.S. military preparations have intensified dramatically. Officials cited by Axios said any potential American operation would likely involve a broad and sustained campaign lasting several weeks, targeting key components of Iran’s military and strategic infrastructure rather than a limited strike.
Sources warned such a conflict could evolve into a joint U.S.-Israeli operation significantly larger than previous confrontations and could carry existential consequences for the Iranian regime.
According to the report, Trump came close to authorizing military action in early January following Iran’s violent crackdown on domestic protests that reportedly left thousands dead. The administration later shifted to a dual-track strategy combining renewed negotiations with a rapid military buildup intended to maintain maximum pressure on Tehran.
That buildup has accelerated in recent days. More than 150 U.S. military cargo flights have transported weapons systems and ammunition into the region, while open-source flight tracking data shows a surge in American aircraft movements across the United States and Europe.
Dozens of U.S. Air Force aircraft have been observed operating across transatlantic routes, including aerial refueling tankers, transport aircraft, and E-3 airborne warning and control system planes used to coordinate large-scale air operations.
Two AWACS aircraft deployed from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska to RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom, while four others flew from Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma to Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
At the same time, more than 50 American fighter jets, including F-22, F-35, and F-16 aircraft, have been repositioned to the Middle East. The deployments accompany two U.S. aircraft carriers, one already operating in the region and another en route, underscoring the scale of American preparations.
Despite continued diplomatic engagement, officials quoted in the Axios report expressed growing frustration with the pace of negotiations. “The boss is getting fed up,” one Trump adviser said.
The simultaneous advance of negotiations and large-scale military deployments has left the region approaching a decisive moment, with diplomacy continuing under mounting pressure from an increasingly visible U.S. military buildup.
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