{"id":361197,"date":"2020-08-27T12:50:51","date_gmt":"2020-08-27T09:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/?p=361197"},"modified":"2021-04-26T13:07:06","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T10:07:06","slug":"israel-aura-bientot-passe-le-pic-du-coronavirus-dapres-certains-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/israel-aura-bientot-passe-le-pic-du-coronavirus-dapres-certains-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Isra\u00ebl aura bient\u00f4t pass\u00e9 le pic du Coronavirus, d’apr\u00e8s certains experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00abSi nous maintenons les restrictions actuelles, alors mon mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dit que nous arrivons \u00e0 la fin de ce pic, qui devrait diminuer \u00e0 la fin du mois d’ao\u00fbt ou au d\u00e9but du mois de septembre\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le professeur Mark Last.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Par TPS<\/em><\/p>\n

Le professeur Mark Last, sp\u00e9cialiste des donn\u00e9es de l’Universit\u00e9 Ben Gourion du N\u00e9guev, affirme qu’un nouveau confinement en Isra\u00ebl n’est pas n\u00e9cessaire si les restrictions actuelles sont maintenues et s’il n’y a pas d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements de propagation inhabituels.<\/p>\n

Last a analys\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es disponibles concernant les cas confirm\u00e9s de coronavirus (COVID-19) et les d\u00e9c\u00e8s et en a conclu \u00absi nous maintenons les restrictions actuelles, mon mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dit que nous arrivons \u00e0 la fin de ce pic, qui devrait s’arr\u00eater \u00e0 la fin du mois d’ao\u00fbt ou d\u00e9but septembre. \u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00abDe plus, selon mes calculs, nous avons besoin de 1,16 million de personnes avec des anticorps pour obtenir l’immunit\u00e9 collective et nous sommes tr\u00e8s proches de ce nombre<\/em>\u00bb, a-t-il d\u00e9clar\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u00abS’il n’y a pas d’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie inhabituelle en raison du retour \u00e0 l’\u00e9cole, des voyages \u00e0 Ouman ou des grands mariages, le taux d’infection commencera \u00e0 baisser. Bien qu’un autre confinement r\u00e9duirait certainement les taux d’infection, il n’est pas n\u00e9cessaire pour le moment car la distance sociale et physique contribue \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les taux d’infection<\/em> \u00bb, a-t-il ajout\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Last est membre du D\u00e9partement d\u2019ing\u00e9nierie des logiciels et des syst\u00e8mes d\u2019information de BGU et directeur du centre de recherche en science des donn\u00e9es de l\u2019Universit\u00e9. Il analyse les donn\u00e9es de sant\u00e9 depuis 20 ans.<\/p>\n

Il a compar\u00e9 la situation d\u2019Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 d\u2019autres pays tels que l\u2019Italie, la Gr\u00e8ce et la Su\u00e8de.<\/p>\n

\u00abNotre syst\u00e8me de sant\u00e9 a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 maintenir le pourcentage de d\u00e9c\u00e8s dus au COVID-19 \u00e0 moins de 1% du nombre total de cas confirm\u00e9s. D’autres pays avaient des taux aussi \u00e9lev\u00e9s que 16% (Italie) et 14% (Su\u00e8de) au d\u00e9but de l’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie et les ont r\u00e9cemment pouss\u00e9s \u00e0 environ 3%<\/em> \u00bb, dit-il.<\/p>\n

Les perspectives pour les patients\u00a0 atteints de COVID-19 qui rejoignent les unit\u00e9s de soins intensifs en Isra\u00ebl ne sont pas aussi optimistes – un taux de mortalit\u00e9 d’environ 80%, selon ses calculs. Le pourcentage mondial est actuellement d\u2019environ 60%, selon les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes recherches de l\u2019Organisation Mondiale de la Sant\u00e9 (OMS). Les statistiques non li\u00e9es au COVID-19, ont montr\u00e9 que le taux normal de mortalit\u00e9 \u00e9tait proche de 20% parmi les personnes admises en soins intensifs.<\/p>\n

Le mod\u00e8le de Last est bas\u00e9 sur les d\u00e9c\u00e8s attribu\u00e9s au COVID-19 signal\u00e9s quotidiennement par le minist\u00e8re isra\u00e9lien de la Sant\u00e9 et sur une estimation du nombre total de personnes infect\u00e9es sur la base des r\u00e9sultats publi\u00e9s des tests s\u00e9rologiques plut\u00f4t que sur les cas confirm\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Il y avait un \u00e9cart entre son mod\u00e8le et les d\u00e9c\u00e8s signal\u00e9s par le minist\u00e8re de la Sant\u00e9 jusqu’\u00e0 ce que le minist\u00e8re publie une correction la semaine derni\u00e8re. D\u00e9sormais, son mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dit le taux de mortalit\u00e9 exact.<\/p>\n

\u00abNous ne pouvons pas conna\u00eetre le nombre r\u00e9el de cas d’infection \u00e0 moins de tester la population enti\u00e8re chaque jour. Les premiers tests s\u00e9rologiques indiquent que le rapport des cas confirm\u00e9s aux cas r\u00e9els est d’environ 1 \u00e0 10. En utilisant ces chiffres, nous avons maintenant un peu plus d’un million de personnes avec des anticorps en Isra\u00ebl et nous avons besoin d’au moins 1,2 million<\/em> \u00bb, a-t-il expliqu\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Par cons\u00e9quent, il est prudemment optimiste quant \u00e0 l’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de COVID-19 en Isra\u00ebl.<\/p>\n

\u00abNous allons dans la bonne direction, mais il est important de ne pas assouplir nos restrictions ou de devenir trop confiants\u00bb<\/em>, pr\u00e9vient-il.<\/p>\n

Dans l’intervalle, le taux d’infection en Isra\u00ebl est rest\u00e9 tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Le minist\u00e8re de la Sant\u00e9 a inform\u00e9 mercredi soir qu’il avait enregistr\u00e9 1 952 nouveaux patients v\u00e9rifi\u00e9s au cours des derni\u00e8res 24 heures.<\/p>\n

404 patients sont dans un \u00e9tat grave, dont 119 en r\u00e9animation.<\/p>\n

Sur les 108 054 cas v\u00e9rifi\u00e9s enregistr\u00e9s lors de l’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste en Isra\u00ebl, 875 sont d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Do You Love Israel? Make a Donation - Show Your Support!<\/h2>
\"\"<\/a>

<\/p><\/div>

Donate to vital charities<\/strong><\/a> that help protect Israeli citizens and inspire millions around the world to support Israel too! <\/p>

Now more than ever, Israel needs your help to fight and win the war -- including on the battlefield of public opinion. <\/p>

Antisemitism, anti-Israel bias and boycotts are out of control. Israel's enemies are inciting terror and violence against innocent Israelis and Jews around the world. Help us fight back!<\/strong><\/a> <\/p>

STAND WTH ISRAEL - MAKE A DONATION TODAY!<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/div><\/shortcode>

\"Donate<\/a><\/div><\/ad-shortcode><\/non-auwi>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00abSi nous maintenons les restrictions actuelles, alors mon mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dit que nous arrivons \u00e0 la fin de ce pic, qui devrait diminuer \u00e0 la fin du mois d’ao\u00fbt ou au d\u00e9but du mois de septembre\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le professeur Mark Last. Par TPS Le professeur Mark Last, sp\u00e9cialiste des donn\u00e9es de l’Universit\u00e9 Ben Gourion du… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4242,"featured_media":356437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[28418,41155],"tags":[37991,37426,37424,39457,29273,30509,29783],"class_list":["post-361197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites-israeliennes","category-combat-disrael-contre-le-covid-19","tag-confinement","tag-coronavirus-fr","tag-epidemie","tag-experts","tag-hopitaux","tag-medecins","tag-sante"],"better_featured_image":{"id":356437,"alt_text":"","caption":"Shutterstock\n","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":7831,"height":5252,"file":"2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366.jpg","sizes":{"medium":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-300x201.jpg","width":300,"height":201,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-300x201.jpg"},"large":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-1024x687.jpg","width":1024,"height":687,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-1024x687.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-768x515.jpg","width":768,"height":515,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-768x515.jpg"},"1536x1536":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-1536x1030.jpg","width":1536,"height":1030,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-1536x1030.jpg"},"uwi-full-width":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-775x520.jpg","width":775,"height":520,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-775x520.jpg"},"uwi-featured-carousel":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-890x400.jpg","width":890,"height":400,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-890x400.jpg"},"uwi-featured-content":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-290x160.jpg","width":290,"height":160,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-290x160.jpg"},"uwi-content-loop":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-190x190.jpg","width":190,"height":190,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-190x190.jpg"},"uwi-category_list":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-180x100.jpg","width":180,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-180x100.jpg"},"uwi-tiny":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-40x40.jpg","width":40,"height":40,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-40x40.jpg"},"uwi-email-featured":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-250x170.jpg","width":250,"height":170,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-250x170.jpg"},"uwi-email":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-200x140.jpg","width":200,"height":140,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-200x140.jpg"},"uwi-full-width-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-774x519.jpg","width":774,"height":519,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-774x519.jpg"},"uwi-fb-share-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-600x315.jpg","width":600,"height":315,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-600x315.jpg"},"uwi-fb-share":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-600x320.jpg","width":600,"height":320,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-600x320.jpg"},"uwi-featured-content-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-289x159.jpg","width":289,"height":159,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-289x159.jpg"},"uwi-content-loop-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-189x189.jpg","width":189,"height":189,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-189x189.jpg"},"uwi-category_list-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-179x99.jpg","width":179,"height":99,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-179x99.jpg"},"uwi-tiny-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-39x39.jpg","width":39,"height":39,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-39x39.jpg"},"uwi-email-featured-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-249x169.jpg","width":249,"height":169,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-249x169.jpg"},"uwi-email-video":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-209x139.jpg","width":209,"height":139,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-209x139.jpg"},"post-thumbnail":{"file":"shutterstock_1646413366-125x125.jpg","width":125,"height":125,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366-125x125.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":356436,"source_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/shutterstock_1646413366.jpg"},"aioseo_notices":[],"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"Unis avec Isra\u00ebl","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/","push-errors":false,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4242"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=361197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/356437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=361197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=361197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=361197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}