{"id":329234,"date":"2020-01-15T14:48:07","date_gmt":"2020-01-15T11:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/?p=329234"},"modified":"2020-01-15T17:12:32","modified_gmt":"2020-01-15T14:12:32","slug":"israel-previent-le-monde-liran-aura-larme-nucleaire-dans-deux-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/israel-previent-le-monde-liran-aura-larme-nucleaire-dans-deux-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Isra\u00ebl pr\u00e9vient le monde: l’Iran aura l’arme nucl\u00e9aire dans deux ans"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’Iran est \u00e0 deux ans de l’obtention de l’arme nucl\u00e9aire et de la production de l’ogive capable d’entrer dans un missile pour une \u00e9ventuelle exp\u00e9dition, selon un rapport annuel des renseignements militaires (AMAN, pour son sigle en h\u00e9breu) \u200b\u200bdes Forces de D\u00e9fense Isra\u00e9liennes (FDI).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Source: Aurora<\/em><\/p>\n

Si T\u00e9h\u00e9ran acc\u00e9l\u00e8re le processus, l’hiver prochain, il accumulera suffisamment d’uranium pour produire une bombe atomique, et il faudra encore un an pour fabriquer une ogive.<\/p>\n

Cependant, il semblent que les iraniens aient toujours tout int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 adh\u00e9rer \u00e0 l’accord nucl\u00e9aire de 2015 et que les violations du pacte ne visent qu’\u00e0 pouvoir mieux n\u00e9gocier le prochain accord.<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, le renseignement militaire estime que la possibilit\u00e9 d’une guerre promue par l’ennemi est faible. Cependant, il existe une probabilit\u00e9 moyenne \u00e0 faible de \u00ab\u00a0pr\u00e9server les \u00e9quations de r\u00e9ponse dans le sc\u00e9nario du Nord avec un risque de disposition \u00e0 la guerre\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>. Autrement dit, les r\u00e9actions de l’ennemi aux actions attribu\u00e9es \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl pourraient conduire \u00e0 une escalade.<\/p>\n

Le renseignement militaire d\u00e9finit 2020 comme une ann\u00e9e de d\u00e9cisions difficiles pour T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, qui d\u00e9tourne des ressources pour poursuivre le programme nucl\u00e9aire. Ce sont des d\u00e9cisions difficiles concernant la d\u00e9cision iranienne de poursuivre le projet atomique, la crise \u00e9conomique dans le pays, la consolidation militaire en Syrie et les \u00e9lections au Parlement iranien (Majlis).<\/p>\n

L’\u00e9valuation de la situation annuelle a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise \u00e0 jour apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9limination du commandant de la Force Quds, Qasem Soleiman\u00ed, lors d’une frappe a\u00e9rienne am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l’ext\u00e9rieur de l’a\u00e9roport de Bagdad.\u00a0 (…).<\/p>\n

Selon les estimations des services de renseignement, la consolidation militaire iranienne en Syrie peut encore \u00eatre influenc\u00e9e, en particulier apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9limination de Soleimani qui a laiss\u00e9 un vide dans la r\u00e9gion. La question est de savoir comment leurs successeurs conserveront le syst\u00e8me complexe qu’ils ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 au Moyen-Orient. De plus, le renseignement militaire r\u00e9v\u00e8le que le groupe terroriste chiite libanais Hezbollah envoie des troupes du c\u00f4t\u00e9 syrien des hauteurs du Golan. Le Hamas a \u00e9galement \u00e9tabli des cellules dans cette zone et le Jihad islamique tente d’en faire de m\u00eame, mais pour l’instant sans succ\u00e8s.<\/p>\n

Le renseignement militaire recommande de profiter du vide cr\u00e9\u00e9 par l’\u00e9limination de Soleimani, et d’augmenter les attaques contre la consolidation militaire iranienne dans ce pays arabe. En outre, il d\u00e9tecte que T\u00e9h\u00e9ran r\u00e9duit le nombre de ses soldats sur le terrain.<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, on estime que l’instabilit\u00e9 politique se poursuivra au Liban cette ann\u00e9e. Tout comme l’accumulation de puissance du Hezbollah, qui doit d\u00e9cider s’il poursuit son projet de conversion et de fabrication de missiles de pr\u00e9cision. D’autre part, le renseignement militaire d\u00e9tecte dans le discours du chef du Hezbollah, Cheikh Hassan Nasralla, les premiers signes d’ind\u00e9pendance et d’ali\u00e9nation ou d’insubordination \u00e0 l’\u00e9gard de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran. L’\u00e9limination de Soleimani a \u00e9galement eu des effets: \u00ab\u00a0La tendance \u00e0 la s\u00e9paration du Hezbollah pourrait \u00eatre renforc\u00e9e.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le renseignement militaire a \u00e9galement fait r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 l’ar\u00e8ne palestinienne et sugg\u00e8re que son avertissement strat\u00e9gique \u00e9tait correct. Il y a une diminution du volume des attaques terroristes et l’Autorit\u00e9 palestinienne poursuivra son offensive politique contre Isra\u00ebl sans enfreindre les r\u00e8gles du jeu, c’est-\u00e0-dire sans lever les pieds de l’assiette. Cependant, il n’est pas exclu que si des \u00e9lections sont organis\u00e9es, l’Autorit\u00e9 palestinienne pourrait \u00eatre surprise par les r\u00e9sultats en Cisjordanie et le soutien croissant au Hamas.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 Gaza, le Hamas a \u00e9t\u00e9 dissuad\u00e9 par la guerre et s’en tient aux accords informels avec Isra\u00ebl; mais il est contest\u00e9 par les organisations marginales insurg\u00e9es. Le Hamas continue de constituer des forces et pourrait combattre Isra\u00ebl pendant des jours, mais veillez \u00e0 ce que la situation ne se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore pas et qu\u2019une bagarre \u00e9clate. Il poursuivra ses efforts pour rester calme dans la r\u00e9gion tant qu’il le jugera b\u00e9n\u00e9fique pour sa survie. Autrement dit, votre motivation semble \u00eatre essentiellement utilitaire.<\/p>\n

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\"Donate<\/a><\/div><\/ad-shortcode><\/non-auwi>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’Iran est \u00e0 deux ans de l’obtention de l’arme nucl\u00e9aire et de la production de l’ogive capable d’entrer dans un missile pour une \u00e9ventuelle exp\u00e9dition, selon un rapport annuel des renseignements militaires (AMAN, pour son sigle en h\u00e9breu) \u200b\u200bdes Forces de D\u00e9fense Isra\u00e9liennes (FDI). Source: Aurora Si T\u00e9h\u00e9ran acc\u00e9l\u00e8re le processus, l’hiver prochain, il accumulera… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4242,"featured_media":304545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[28216],"tags":[28801,33446,28503,29654,37102],"class_list":["post-329234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee","tag-guerre","tag-iran-fr","tag-moyen-orient","tag-nucleaire","tag-soleimani-fr"],"better_featured_image":{"id":304545,"alt_text":"Iran Revolutionary Guard","caption":"FILE-- In this Sept. 24, 2017 file photo, surface-to-surface missiles and a portrait of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are displayed by the Revolutionary Guard in an exhibition marking the anniversary of outset of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, at Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran. 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