{"id":315290,"date":"2019-09-18T13:06:46","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T10:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/?p=315290"},"modified":"2019-09-18T15:09:37","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T12:09:37","slug":"elections-israeliennes-le-point-sur-les-resultats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/fr\/elections-israeliennes-le-point-sur-les-resultats\/","title":{"rendered":"Elections isra\u00e9liennes: le point sur les r\u00e9sultats"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par: Ana Jerozolimski<\/em><\/p>\n

Ayant officiellement termin\u00e9 le contr\u00f4le de 78% des suffrages aux \u00e9lections isra\u00e9liennes – bien que officieusement les donn\u00e9es provenant de la Commission \u00e9lectorale centrale reposent d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur la quasi-totalit\u00e9 d\u2019entre elles – c’est confirm\u00e9: le Likoud de Biniamin Netanyahu et Kahol Lavan de Beni Gantz sont presque \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9, avec un l\u00e9ger avantage de 1 si\u00e8ge pour le bloc au pouvoir.<\/p>\n

Plusieurs points sont \u00e0 mentionner:<\/p>\n

– Selon le calcul de 99,5% des voix, il existe une \u00e9galit\u00e9 absolue entre le Likoud de Netanyahu et Kahol Lavan de Gantz, avec 32 si\u00e8ges chacun. Mais le facteur d\u00e9terminant est les blocs: celui de droite compte 56 mandats, et celui du centre gauche 55.<\/p>\n

– Ceci, laissant Avigdor Liberman en tant que bloc ind\u00e9pendant poss\u00e8de 9 si\u00e8ges. Ce n’est pas un hasard si on l’appelle depuis longtemps \u00ab\u00a0le faiseur de roi\u00a0\u00bb.
\nDans une situation o\u00f9 personne n\u2019atteint 61 mandats, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la moiti\u00e9 plus 1 des membres de la Kneset, Liberman sera d\u00e9cisif et a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la seule option qu\u2019il consid\u00e9rait \u00e9tait l\u2019unit\u00e9 nationale entre le Likoud et Kahol Lavan. En fait, pour l\u2019unit\u00e9, les 2 plus gros suffiraient. Sans cette alliance, former un gouvernement ne semble pas faisable. Aucun bloc n’est apte \u00e0 former un gouvernement uniquement avec ses \u00ab\u00a0alli\u00e9s naturels<\/em>\u00ab\u00a0.<\/p>\n

– Liberman a d\u00e9j\u00e0 critiqu\u00e9 cela mardi soir, dans son discours de synth\u00e8se de la journ\u00e9e – bien que ce ne soit pas encore un discours formel, dans l’attente des r\u00e9sultats finaux – Beni Gantz n’a pas explicitement parl\u00e9 d’une coalition lib\u00e9rale et la\u00efque sans ultra-orthodoxe. Il a pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 que les partis ultra-orthodoxes n’\u00e9taient pas leurs \u00ab\u00a0ennemis<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb mais \u00ab\u00a0des adversaires politiques<\/em>\u00ab\u00a0. Il n’exclut pas l’\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 de partager une coalition avec eux, tant qu’ils acceptent les conditions qu’il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 pos\u00e9es, mais il a clairement indiqu\u00e9 qu’il n’accepterait pas de rejoindre un gouvernement de droite extr\u00eamement ultra-orthodoxe. Sa seule option est l’unit\u00e9 nationale.<\/p>\n

– L’un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui compliquent cette option est que, pour le moment, Kahol Lavan reste ferme dans sa position d\u00e9clar\u00e9e selon laquelle il ne si\u00e8gera pas avec Netanyahu, en raison de l’ombre de soup\u00e7ons de corruption. Oui avec le Likoud, mais pas avec Netanyahou. Pour sa part, le Likoud souligne, du moins pour le moment, qu\u2019il reste uni \u00e0 Netanyahu au front, puisque c\u2019est son chef, \u00e9lu d\u00e9mocratiquement.<\/p>\n

– En outre: selon les d\u00e9clarations de ce mercredi matin des d\u00e9put\u00e9s du Likud, ils ne rejoindront pas une unit\u00e9 nationale uniquement compos\u00e9e de Kahol Lavan et Liberman, mais un gouvernement d\u2019union devrait \u00e9galement inclure ses \u00ab\u00a0alli\u00e9s naturels<\/em>\u00ab\u00a0, Yemina et les ultra-orthodoxes.<\/p>\n

– Le troisi\u00e8me plus gros parti est la liste commune, une union de 4 listes arabes, qui a obtenu 12 si\u00e8ges et qui regroupe tous les partis, m\u00eame s’ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 s\u00e9par\u00e9s au Parlement sortant. Ils pourraient soutenir de l’ext\u00e9rieur une coalition dirig\u00e9e par Gantz pour bloquer Netanyahou, mais ils ne le rejoindront pas. Certainement pas avec Liberman, qui n’accepte pas non plus la liste commune. Ahmed Tibi, Pr\u00e9sident de l\u2019un des quatre partis qui composent la liste commune, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que M. Gantz n\u2019avait pas encore pris contact avec eux, mais il n\u2019a pas exclu de recommander au pr\u00e9sident Rivlin de d\u00e9signer Gantz comme leader du prochain gouvernement, mais il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que Ils ne feront pas partie de la coalition.<\/p>\n

– Les partis haredim ultra-orthodoxes ont augment\u00e9 leur pr\u00e9sence parlementaire de 1 si\u00e8ge: 9 si\u00e8ges pour le parti SHAS (Gardiens S\u00e9pharades de la Torah) et 8 pour Yahadut HaTora, c’est-\u00e0-dire le Juda\u00efsme Unifi\u00e9 de la Torah. Dans son analyse \u00e9troite, SHAS peut se f\u00e9liciter de son augmentation, mais avec le tableau g\u00e9n\u00e9ral dans lequel il semble tr\u00e8s probable qu’ils ne si\u00e8gent pas au gouvernement, la situation devient plus probl\u00e9matique.<\/p>\n

– La gauche n’a pas disparu, contrairement \u00e0 ce que certains estimaient. Le parti travailliste (Avoda-Gesher) conserve ses six si\u00e8ges et l\u2019Union d\u00e9mocratique (Meretz) est pass\u00e9e de quatre \u00e0 cinq. Les deux partis d\u00e9j\u00e0 proclam\u00e9s pendant la campagne \u00e9lectorale recommanderont au pr\u00e9sident de confier \u00e0 Gantz la formation du gouvernement. Mais nous pouvons attendre de voir s\u2019ils soutiendraient une coalition avec Liberman, qu\u2019ils consid\u00e8rent comme un extr\u00e9miste de droite.
\nSouvenez-vous de tout cela, selon l’examen de 92% des votes non officiels, transmis par la radio publique isra\u00e9lienne, par la bouche de son chroniqueur \u00e0 la Commission \u00e9lectorale centrale.<\/p>\n

Source: Hebrew Jai Weekly<\/em><\/p>\n

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Par: Ana Jerozolimski Ayant officiellement termin\u00e9 le contr\u00f4le de 78% des suffrages aux \u00e9lections isra\u00e9liennes – bien que officieusement les donn\u00e9es provenant de la Commission \u00e9lectorale centrale reposent d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur la quasi-totalit\u00e9 d\u2019entre elles – c’est confirm\u00e9: le Likoud de Biniamin Netanyahu et Kahol Lavan de Beni Gantz sont presque \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9, avec un l\u00e9ger… Read more 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