{"id":425766,"date":"2022-05-23T06:36:52","date_gmt":"2022-05-23T06:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/?p=425766"},"modified":"2022-05-23T09:36:52","modified_gmt":"2022-05-23T06:36:52","slug":"elecciones-en-el-libano-hezbollah-se-ha-debilitado-pero-es-largo-el-camino-hacia-el-cambio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinsta.unitedwithisrael.org\/es\/elecciones-en-el-libano-hezbollah-se-ha-debilitado-pero-es-largo-el-camino-hacia-el-cambio\/","title":{"rendered":"Elecciones en el L\u00edbano: Hezbollah se ha debilitado, pero es largo el camino hacia el cambio"},"content":{"rendered":"

Debilitamiento del bando del grupo terrorista chi\u00ed proiran\u00ed; pero no lo suficiente como para formar un gobierno estable y funcional que saque al pa\u00eds del cedro de su profunda crisis.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Por Orna Mizrahi<\/p>\n

\u201cLos resultados de las elecciones parlamentarias libanesas reflejan cambios en el mapa pol\u00edtico, que significan principalmente el debilitamiento del ala de Hezbollah y el fortalecimiento de sus opositores, pero no lo suficiente como para formar un gobierno estable y funcional que un L\u00edbano que se derrumba necesita desesperadamente\u201d.<\/p>\n

A pesar de las bajas expectativas de una parte importante del p\u00fablico liban\u00e9s, que tambi\u00e9n se reflejaron en la baja participaci\u00f3n (41% frente al 49% en las elecciones de 2018); los resultados actuales reflejan los nuevos vientos que soplan en el L\u00edbano.<\/p>\n

El principal cambio es la disminuci\u00f3n del apoyo al bando de Hezbollah, que ha perdido la mayor\u00eda parlamentaria de la que disfrutaba desde las elecciones de 2018 (71 esca\u00f1os de 128). Aunque Hezbollah ha conservado sus 13 esca\u00f1os de los 128 miembros del parlamento, sus socios cristianos y drusos del parlamento anterior sufrieron un duro golpe y se debilitaron; mientras que los candidatos de Hezbollah incluso perdieron en \u00e1reas bajo su control.<\/p>\n

Al mismo tiempo, el gran ganador de estas elecciones es Samir Geagea, l\u00edder del partido Fuerzas Libanesas y archienemigo de Nasrallah.<\/p>\n

Geagea lidera la lucha para desarmar a Hezbollah, y su partido se ha convertido en el partido cristiano m\u00e1s grande en el parlamento actual.<\/p>\n

Otro cambio significativo es la elecci\u00f3n de m\u00e1s de 20 nuevos diputados que representan fragmentos de nuevos partidos independientes que carecen de identidad \u00e9tnico-religiosa. Nacidos al calor de la protesta p\u00fablica generalizada en el L\u00edbano, reclaman un cambio en el liderazgo del pa\u00eds y mejorar la situaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y social.<\/p>\n

Al mismo tiempo, parece que los logros de los oponentes de Hezbollah no conducir\u00e1n en el futuro cercano a ning\u00fan cambio positivo en la catastr\u00f3fica situaci\u00f3n del colapso del estado liban\u00e9s, ya que el nuevo sistema pol\u00edtico no lograr\u00e1 la estabilidad.<\/p>\n

Muchos de los viejos l\u00edderes corruptos han permanecido intactos.<\/p>\n

El boicot a las elecciones por parte del gran partido sunita de Hariri, al Mustaqbal, ha dejado un vac\u00edo de liderazgo en el campo sunita.<\/p>\n

Presenta a Hezbollah y sus aliados con un campo dividido, que incluye varios partidos antiguos y fragmentos de partidos.<\/p>\n

No est\u00e1 claro si Geagea, se\u00f1alado por Hezbollah como colaborador de Israel, lograr\u00e1 unir a los partidos sobre la base de una agenda com\u00fan.<\/p>\n

En esta situaci\u00f3n, es dudoso que se informe pronto al pueblo del L\u00edbano del establecimiento de un nuevo gobierno funcional, y parece lejos de llegar a un acuerdo sobre la formaci\u00f3n y dotaci\u00f3n de personal del primer ministro sunita que lo conducir\u00e1 (seg\u00fan la constituci\u00f3n libanesa).<\/p>\n

Ya en esta etapa temprana, Hezbollah se est\u00e1 haciendo eco del mensaje de que se requiere un gobierno de consenso con su participaci\u00f3n, lo que significa que el gobierno se ver\u00e1 paralizado como sus predecesores, y no podr\u00e1 funcionar de manera efectiva y trabajar para la reconstrucci\u00f3n del L\u00edbano.<\/p>\n

Incluso si se llega a un acuerdo sobre la formaci\u00f3n de un gobierno sin Hezbollah, un escenario que es muy poco probable en esta etapa; Hezbollah utilizar\u00e1 todos los medios a su disposici\u00f3n para torpedear sus actividades.<\/p>\n

Fuente: INSS The Institute for National Security Studies<\/p>\n

Extra\u00eddo de la p\u00e1gina de Aurora<\/p>\n

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Debilitamiento del bando del grupo terrorista chi\u00ed proiran\u00ed; pero no lo suficiente como para formar un gobierno estable y funcional que saque al pa\u00eds del cedro de su profunda crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":398070,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[213],"tags":[43925,838],"class_list":["post-425766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guerrapaz","tag-elecciones-en-el-libano","tag-hezbollah-es"],"better_featured_image":{"id":398070,"alt_text":"","caption":"Terroristas de Hezbollah . 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